Ah, wouldn't you know it...I started this thread this afternoon and the mailman just delivered the missing package. No signs of mis-delivery except it's clear that the package was mangled somewhere along the line -- label torn and associated wear marks and hole in cardboard mailer, but not large enough for the strikes to fall through. Whew!

Still, I don't know what is fair if it hadn't shown up. PayPal clearly says they would cover a non-delivery under their Buyer Protection Plan and according to Craig, the tracking might protect the seller from a chargeback. Anyway, like many of you, I self-insure on most commons, so I'm ready to eat the loss if necessary and appropriate. Seems to be a better deal long term than buying insurance.