Tracy, there is no doubt in my mind that these machines can be set up to hit more or less frequently on a certain cylinder. Whether they are doing this I am not sure.

If each cylinder is randon(1 in 6 chance) then there is still a 9% chance you will win 12 commons before winning a red cap.

If there is a red cap on the bottom row

Winning red cap 1st strike won 16.67%
Winning red cap by 2nd strike won 30.57%
Winning red cap by 3rd strike won 42.14%
Winning red cap by 4th strike won 51.79%
Winning red cap by 5th strike won 59.82%
Winning red cap by 6th strike won 66.53%
Winning red cap by 7th strike won 72.11%
Winning red cap by 8th strike won 76.76%
Winning red cap by 9th strike won 80.63%
Winning red cap by 10th strike won 83.86%
Winning red cap by 11th strike won 86.55%
Winning red cap by 12th strike won 88.80%
Winning red cap by 13th strike won 90.67%
Winning red cap by 14th strike won 92.22%

So you can see there is still an 8% chance that after winning 14 strike that red cap will still be there.

Now if the red cap happens to be in a cylinder that has a frequency of 1 in 10 then the odds are 77.15% that you will win a red cap by the 14th strike. Or 22.85% chance that you still haven't won it on the 14th strike out.